A few weeks ago, we wrote that while a recent panel discussion of the iPhone NPR app was focused on the ability to access any NPR station despite its over-the-air local broadcast range constraints (geographic independence), the primary value proposition of the NPR app is the ability to access any program despite its scheduled air time constraints (temporal independence).  Put another way, this app represents the ‘tivo-ization’ of NPR.

In fact, the intrinsic ability to time-shift content is arguably the primary value proposition of any internet media platform.

Some recent coverage of Apple’s forthcoming Apple TV subscription model misses this point entirely, though…

Will Richmond’s VideoNuze newsletter today covered a recent WSJ article on the possibility of an Apple TV subscription model rolling out in 2010. Noting that licensing fees for the 4 broadcast networks and 12 basic cable networks would come to roughly $30 per month, the article concludes that for “only” 16 channels, such a product is based on “fuzzy math” and “would induce few consumers to cut the cord”.

We feel that a direct comparison of Apple TV (or any internet media platform) to linear television misses the point - what the article fails to recognize is that subscribers to the prospective Apple TV service could select what they wanted to watch – when they wanted to watch it.  From the couch, not the desk.  Via an à la carte per-channel pricing model.  And lastly, from a friendly and elegant user interface (Apple’s pretty good at that).

When you consider that, I don’t think it’s quite the non-starter Video Nuze does.  Myself?  For 12 cable channels (of my choice) and even just a few broadcast networks, all completely on-demand, I would pay well over $30 per month plus a broadband internet monthly service charge – and still consider myself better off than I am today.

It’s also worth remembering that for any broadcast network not part of the new Apple TV subscription service, digital over-the-air broadcast is also now an option – in fact, could the new Apple TV models include an embedded digital antenna?

Another thing to remember: Apple doesn’t have to make any money themselves on the licensing – as far as revenue is concerned, Apple is (first and foremost) a hardware company: iTunes is given away to drive  iPod/iPhone sales, and the (OSX-only) professional music production suite Logic is sold well under development cost as a loss leader to help sell high-end Apple desktop machines.  Similarly, I think we can assume Apple will make the subscription pricing, content and UI compelling enough to move those Apple TV units (while not infallible, I think they’ve proven themselves pretty good at understanding consumers and the value of a good user experience).

I understand that some coverage of online media comes from a certain (sometimes incumbent-friendly) perspective, and I don’t know if Apple will end up a year from now with another iTunes/iPhone success on their hands or not.  But I do think that failing to recognize the fundamental value-add of time-shifting inherent to internet video is a mistake one makes at their own peril.

Predictions? (it is that time of year, after all) – look for the Apple TV subscription service to force hulu’s hand. If new part-owner Comcast allows it, will we see ‘ hulu-in-a-box’ sometime in 2010?

…and lastly, Happy Holidays!