On first glance, the latest Neilsen Online numbers suggest Youtube continued its utter domination of the web video streaming space in September, delivering over 20 times the number of streams delivered by runner-up service Yahoo Video and roughly 35 times the number of streams delivered by Hulu.

But take into account that while the typical Youtube stream averages only 2-4 minutes in running time, the typical full-length TV episode Hulu streams tends to be at least 10 times that length - and that while the ongoing Viacom lawsuit has effectively forced Youtube to remove all unlicensed copyrighted material from its site, Hulu offers more widely appealing current mainstream TV fare.
Then the simple aggregate number of streams delivered starts to make a less illuminating metric.

So, program length and mass appeal – two attributes that fundamentally differentiate Youtube from Hulu.  As it happens, Youtube is moving to address both.

Program Length Although a 10 minute/1GB maximum remains in place for the unwashed masses, this restriction has been removed for a select number of approved Youtube Channel partners.  One such partner is CBS, which is at least sticking a toe in the water by making full-length episodes of vintage shows such as ‘Star Trek’ and ‘MacGyver’ available.  Not exactly ‘The Office’ –  but while (like theWB.com and the Netflix ‘Watch Instantly’ queue) the tentative nature of the move is betrayed by the staleness of the content, it’s interesting to note that major Youtube parner CBS also happens to be the sister company of Youtube’s intellectual property rights nemesis Viacom (CBS and Viacom were spun off from each other in 2005).    What’s also worth noting is that it’s not only full-length TV content Youtube is moving towards – with its Screening Room channel, YouTube is streaming an increasing number of full-length independent films – an entirely new paradigm for the king of short-form video over IP.

Mass Appeal Historically, the prototypical Youtube content provider has been the amateur, uploading self-generated content of the ‘check-out-my-dog-skateboarding’ variety (in other words, amusing stuff but not worth sitting through embedded ads for).  These days, however, the typical Youtube upload is just as likely to come from a corporate entity such as Universal Music Group, the BBC, Britney Spears, or CBS - all of which currently post clips of their proprietary content via dedicated Youtube Channels (with customizable wallpaper, the channels can look almost as individually branded as mySpace, although thankfully less visually chaotic and noisy).
The most-viewed of these channels is in fact run by CBS.

So…  is Youtube looking to compete against Hulu directly?  It would appear so: some CBS clips now contain very Hulu-esque embedded ads - another paradigm shift for Youtube.  With its unrivaled amount of eyeballs, the Google-owned service has already proven to be a potent (and free) promotional resource for the commercial entertianment and advertising industries – so as Youtube now moves from streaming short-form clips and viral videos to long-form/short-tail (mainstream) commercial entertainment, it’ll be interesting to see if their dominance in short-form/long tail (niche) user-generated video will be a factor - and if the non-embedded ad revenue model will give way to more embedded ads.

But for either Hulu or Youtube, one issue remains – the longer the running time of the content, the more necessary it becomes to bridge that pesky 10-yard gap from the home internet access point behind the computer to the television in front of the couch.

Here at digitalmissive, we believe that sooner or later it’s gonna come down to hardware.

The New York Times has discovered (or rediscovered) thin computing: a small simple device (or ‘terminal’) with just enough under the hood to send mouse & keyboard clicks to a server doing absolutely everything else.  Initially hyped as a challenge to Microsoft’s domination of the workplace desktop, the concept had its 15 minutes as The Next Big Thing a few years back, only to fall from favor due to network performance issues (while it’s acceptable if an application’s a teensy bit slower over the network, sluggish mouse and key response is a non-starter for most users).

But look at the advantages, though: rather than a $1000 workstation with Windows and Office installed, we’re talking about a simple paperback-sized box and monitor for $400, all in.  Granted, MS Terminal Server (and especially Citrix) licenses do cost, but on the other hand consider that there’s no fan noise, no hard drive failures, no long boot-up time, no virus susceptibility, no user-installed malware, space savings, power consumption savings – the list goes on and on.

And I speak from experience – several years ago, as the network administrator for a small business with half a dozen retail and office locations spread across  the country, I moved a good portion of my remote users to these devices.  This not only solved my problem of how to install and maintain remote these workstations, my client (who was growing quickly at the time) loved the immediate savings compared to the workstations they had been buying (even taking the cost of terminal server licenses into account).  I was a hero; life was good (in a keep-the-trains-running job like network administration, you tend to savor those win-win moments). 

While I chose devices from Wyse, as the NY Times article points out, thin client computing is becoming The Next Big Thing all over again - so there are more and more manufacturers out there.  So many, in fact, that it begs the question:

What about the home market?

What I’m getting at is the return of the web appliance.  Like thin clients, this is another concept from a few years back that never quite took off – the only difference being the addition of an onboard web browser of some sort (maybe the well-received Opera browser, since Sony is already embedding that into its new Internet Video Link hardware).  Because in a world of Hulu, Flickr, and Google Docs (services which, unlike Windows Terminal Server or Citrix, are generally free), a simple little box with a browser and a handful of drivers for peripherals would about do it for a lot of folks, wouldn’t it?

Clearly, cloud computing is The Next Big Thing now – at least Google thinks so, and Microsoft thinks so too.   The potential reliability and privacy issues of cloud computing might be a little easier to take if one also imagines potential upside of being able to radically simplify things for the home user.

So thin computing is back. Who knows, maybe the time is finally becoming right again for the web appliance too; maybe the browser is the new operating system.

How much traction is online digital distribution gaining?  Look at what’s going on these days vis à vis DVD release windows…

Hancock Several months ago, Sony crossed a line when it announced it would be releasing the Sony Pictures/Will Smith vehicle “Hancock” over the internet (exclusively to the Sony Internet Video Link device) prior to the DVD release date of November 25.  A good move on Sony’s part: leveraging their unique position as one of the six major film studios and a major CE manufacturer to help drive sales of their new video over IP hardware.

Wall-E At the time, I wondered if there might be similar synergy (remember that word?) in an exclusive release of Pixar’s “Wall-E” exclusively to iTunes/Apple TV before the DVD release, given the close Disney-Apple relationship (when Disney acquired Pixar from Steve Jobs, he became Disney’s largest individual shareholder and was given a seat on the Disney board of directors).   As it happens, Disney/Pixar is planning to release “Wall-E” to Apple TV concurrently with the DVD release, on November 18th  (and will do the same for “The Incredible Hulk” on Ocotber 21st).

The Office On the TV front, last month the well-received Fox/NBC-Universal initiative Hulu announced the online availability of several NBC shows’ 2008 season premiers (including flagship comedy “The Office”) prior to their air dates.  I thought this was a particularly bold move, and was frankly surprised by the relatively little press attention it received (see my take on Virginia Heffernan’s theWB.com article here).

Iron Man Sony Pictures and Disney have obvious options for hardware partnerships (Sony and Apple, respectively), but what’s a Paramount to do?  Enter Dell: the two companies have just announced that for an extra $20, Dell customers can now have the Paramount summer hit (along with bonus footage) pre-loaded onto the hard drives of newly ordered Dell machines.  But while watching a sitcom on the computer is (marginally) acceptable, what about longer-form content such as movies?   Um, no.  Not gonna happen, at least not on any meaningful scale.

For that, you need two additional specialized pieces of hardware:      a television.     and a couch.

Dell Fact 1: Dell and Paramount know the limitations of movie-watching on a PC.   Fact 2: Dell also makes televisions.  It all adds evidence to the rumors of Dell rolling out even more CE hardware and (drumroll…) an iTunes-like service at some point in the future…. but to do that, Dell will have to do two things: retool its workplace-centric brand, and hire some new product design talent  (because I’m not sure Dell understands the benefits of simplicity).

Does the world need another blog post on the iPhone?  I’m gonna go with ‘probably not’ – but as in most big cities where a car culture doesn’t hold sway, we’re all about our mobile devices here in New York – it’s something to do on the trains we ride and the streets we walk, so maybe our smartphones matter a little more to us here.  With that in mind, here’s the first of a few posts on some thoughts I’ve had about my “leetle friend”…

1. no adobe flash
And don’t expect it anytime soon.  While I’m sure Adobe would be happy to whip up an iPhone/Safari-optimized Flash Player, it think Apple would rather sit back and see if the iPhone can’t instead help drive more adoption of their QuickTime platform for video streaming .  Although Adobe’s Flash is the ubiquitous video streaming browser plug-in, Apple’s Quicktime does a perfectly credible job of streaming video content in the open MPEG-4 format (witness the Quicktime-based youtube iPhone App).
If that’s Apple’s strategy, it appears to be working - content providers are coming around: hit the NBC.com site from your iPhone, navigate to a show, and you now can stream episodes in MPEG-4/Quicktime - despite NBC (along with Fox/Paramount) happening to also be behind the well-received (and Flash-based) Hulu initiative (on a wifi network, the experience is pretty impressive).

But speaking of streaming…

2. no streaming (or over-the-air 3G sync) of audio podcasts
While there are a few nice iPhone IP radio apps out there (Pandora and Flycast come to mind), what about podcasts?  With this shiny new 3G network we’re paying for, it’s a little disappointing to have to wait until getting back to the mothership (i.e. a computer runnning iTunes) to sync up and get the newest ones.

Streaming and/or syncing podcasts via 3G would be a Cool Thing (I’m never satisfied).

However, as is often the case when a seemingly obvious (and perfectly technically possible) idea remains unimplemented, dig a little deeper and you’ll find a business-side issue:  in this case, it involves AT&T - my guess is we’re just all on the internet with our 3G iPhones a lot more than they had planned on, so they’ve been caught a bit unawares… (take one exceptionally well-designed mobile device, put it on one speedy all-you-can-eat data plan, add water, and stand back…)

But there is at least one alternative:  Podspew, a website that AT&T and Apple can’t be too happy about.  While it won’t sync podcasts onto the iPhone itself, what it wilI do is convert a good selection of popular podcasts to simple MPEG-4 web links that the iPhone can then stream via Safari and Quicktime (totally subverting Apple’s podcast model, come to think of it).  It works well and is worth checking out (until they get that cease-and-desist letter, that is…)

At any rate, it’s probably obvious by now I’m on the internet a lot with my iPod , walking around and taking the subways here in New York City.   Which brings me to the next issue of battery life, but that has to do with chemistry and electrical engineering rather than with 0’s and 1’s (remember Dell’s pickup truck-destroying laptop? - that was at least as much about pushing the physical battery design envelope as it was about any manufacturing defects – but that’s another story).

Did I mention I love my iPhone?

Wow.  Wow in italics.  That’s how the NY Times’ Virginia Heffernan recently described the availability of vintage Warner’s/WB Network content on the recently launched thewb.com.  And we’re talking vintage: ‘Buffy the Vampire Slayer’, ‘Felicity’, ‘Friends’, ‘MadTV’ – shows many years out of production.  Although a very limited amount of fresh programming is also promised, to the extent the site is primarily about exploiting Warner’s more stale content as fully as possible (and from a quick visit to the site, it sure looks that way), I would disagree with Ms. Heffernan.

Strangely, the article fails to even mention hulu.com, the NBC/Fox joint venture that predates thewb.com by about a year and a half now.  And not only was hulu first on the scene - it’s also more noteworthy for being a joint venture between two broadcast competitors, for offering a wide selection of current broadcast content, and for making several NBC shows available before their fall 2008 premieres.

Add to that the fact that Comedy Central has been making its current content (including ‘The Daily Show’) available online imediately the morning after airing for months now, and it becomes clear that theWB.com is not exactly wow-worthy – on the contrary, the exclusion of current broadcast content and the general age of what is available on the site indicates something of a hedged bet on the part of Warner’s.

In any event, hulu.com would have been the service to write about.

I imagine professionals in any field wince when they see their field covered incompletely or misleadingly in the general media, but Ms. Heffernan’s article misses a more major point: any Flash Player/browser-based video over IP solution (even those offering content from this century) will ultimately be limited by its dependence on the PC – because when it comes to content much longer than the 90-second long tail videos we all snack on from youtube, what’s commonly known as ‘watching TV’ is (and will continue to be) done in front of a coffee table, not a desk.  That’s not to say the paradigm shift to video over IP is not inevitable and already well underway - it is.  But what it’s first going to take is an innovative hardware solution to get that television onto the home network (either a dedicated set-top box or an Ethernet-enabled TV, DVR, or DVD player).  Only then will video over IP services (even the more viable ones such as hulu.com) have the opportunity to really change the game.

“We want to hire the geek.” “We’re looking for people who are in touch with their inner nerd.”

By now, this is taken as gospel: HR 101 for the tech industry.  But while I’m not going to dispute the advantages of having a passion for your job, I would make the case that there’s often more involved in creating truly effective technology than software development and electrical engineering - too often, clarity and simplicity in product design (especially at the UI level) are given short shrift, even in the CE space (where one would expect to see a premium placed on such concerns).  That this somehow remains the case despite the spectacular successes of conspicuously elegant and user-friendly products such as the  iPod and google baffles me - of course I can understand how a self-reinforcing corporate ‘geek culture’ can take root at a technology company, but it’s equally clear that a lot of companies building consumer-facing products would be better served by letting a few more ’soft science’ types into the room when defining their use cases and user interfaces.

In other words, consumer software and CE hardware firms should continue to place a premium on hiring smart people - clear-thinking, logical people – but perhaps a few less technical fetishists, at least in areas that aren’t purely technical (in other words, Toyota doesn’t have the team responsible for engineering the automatic transmission design the dashboard).

Another chronic problem is feature-bloat - solutions looking for problems that are often the result of too many developers going unchecked, all looking make their territorial mark on the product in advance of their next review (a good example of this syndrome is the ever-expanding MS Word application…)

The bottom line: engineering and design are separate (and often mutually exclusive) talents – and should be treated as such. Consumer hardware and software companies should feel as much of a responsibility to design well as to code well.

Some companies in the video over IP sector are getting it right – hulu.com and the Netflix Roku set-top box come to mind (although due an extremely limited selection of available titles, the Roku box will ultimately amount to not much more than a proof-of-concept exercise - with a core competency in DVD rental, Netflix is understandably reluctant to do much more than stick their toe in the digital delivery business for right now – but I digress…)

To put it in quasi-empirical terms - “Brian’s Theorem of Design”, if you will:

• simplicity times (power + quality) = elegance
• elegance squared = user buy-in