We try to avoid taking positions on provocative subjects here at digitalmissive - health care town hall meetings, South African track star gender issues - things like that. But I’ve recently found myself sitting in front of a completely Microsoft-free workstation at my current client site - no Windows, no Word, no (gasp) Excel, no nuthin’. So at the risk of upsetting a few of the religious faithful on either side of the great Cupertino-Redmond divide, I now find myself with a few (somewhat unexpected) observations to share.

I’ve been a Windows user for some time now. The bloat, the ambivalence (at best) towards open standards, the security concerns - all this can get annoying at times. By and large, though, I’ve been one pretty happy XP camper for a while now (like many, I sat out Vista). Lately, though, like many of us John Hodgman types, I’ve secretly wondered if I too could one day be as cool as Drew-Barrymore-boyfriend guy….

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The open source software development model has made substantial inroads into the mainstream consumer and enterprise markets over the past few years – to the point that even Microsoft is now tentatively testing the waters by supporting the Apache Foundation (the folks behind the ubiquitous open source Tomcat web server) and even contributing some code to the underlying kernel of the open source Linux operating system.

Software created by an open community of contributing developers with full access to pre-compiled source code - how secure and stable can it be?   Such long-held concerns have now largely faded, as robust and secure open source applications have flourished over the past few years.

When it comes to online video, though, open source remains a bit of a work in progress.

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A few thoughts on the Bing/Yahoo deal - it’s been about a week now since Carol Bartz decided outsource searches to Microsoft, effectively steering the company away from the technology business and (presumably) more towards the media and content/aggregation business.

For a few years now, the two companies have been attempting to join forces in one manner or another.  How did it finally happen?  Microsoft built a compelling product - their Bing search engine works well, has some interesting features, and has gotten generally good reviews.  The takeaway?  While previous unsuccessful Microsoft attempts to partner with Yahoo! depended on cash as a lever, this successful deal was based on the lever of product quality.

For all involved, I would like to think this would be (to use a currently fashionable buzzword) a “teachable moment”.

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Microsoft has a web browser - Google comes out with a browser.

Google has a great search service - Microsoft comes out with a great (bing) search service.

Microsoft has an operating system - Google plans an operating system.

Google’s recent announcement to have a Chrome operating system available in about a year has generated a lot of chatter lately - but is it really a Windows-killer?  I think not - not anytime soon, that is.  Although the era of Vista will soon be behind Microsoft and Windows 7 (still in beta) is earning favorable early reviews, the primary reason Google’s OS won’t vanquish Microsoft’s Windows operating systems is that while the two companies’ browsers and search engines fulfill exactly the same roles, a direct Windows-Chrome OS comparison is a lot less apt.

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One of the most daunting technological challenges we face today is scaling up this old internet of ours to meet the burgeoning consumer demand for bandwidth-intensive real-time applications such as telecommuting, cloud computing, and streaming media.

And as internet video continues to trend from short-form/long-tail/low quality content towards long-form/short-tail/high quality (premium) content (i.e. from YouTube to hulu to TV/films on embedded hardware), exploding consumer demand could bring things to a head even more quickly than currently anticipated.
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Barring any unforeseen problems with the due diligence and final negotiations, we’re soon going to be hearing all about a deal struck for IBM to acquire Sun.

Sun’s Business
Software: Sun has been a troubled company for a few years now, but will always be admired for giving us Java, the pioneering object-oriented/virtual machine-managed programming language that’s proven itself particularly well-suited for the internet (and upon which many aspects of Microsoft’s competing .Net Framework are modeled).  Sun also recently acquired the very popular open source mySQL database platform (much as the open source Java platform competes against the proprietary .Net Framework, MySQL competes against Microsoft’s proprietary SQL Server).
Hardware: Sun has a going concern in tape storage (yes, tape is still widely used for backing up large and relatively static data), and with its Solaris flavor of Unix, claims roughly a third of the Unix server market.

Why it Makes Sense

• Sun and Big Blue are both distinguished by their common commitment to open source software: Sun administers Java through the Java Community Process, and IBM has used (and been a champion of) open source software for several years now.  However, while Sun has always had difficulty monetizing Java, IBM has the good fortune of having a thriving (and application-hungry) global services and consulting business in place – and so will almost certainly have better luck making some money off the Java programming language than Sun has had (Sun grossed only $200M from Java during 2008, a less than 1% increase over 2007).
• It’s important to note that IBM is already in the Java business – along with major competitors SAP and Oracle, Big Blue sells Java-based “middleware”.  In short, middleware is the software plumbing required to glue other enterprise software apps together (often in a web and/or transactional applications).  So although Java is open source, if IBM were to assume stewardship of the language, it would give its WebShere middleware products at least a perceived leg up on the Java middleware competition.
• Maybe most importantly, consider this: according to a recent BusinessWeek podcast, fully two thirds of American corporate credit is now rated as junk.  Even given the current macro-economic climate, I have a hard time believing such a sobering statistic – but in these credit-starved times, if Company A has some cash on hand, it might be a good time to pull the trigger and acquire weaker Company B: short-term, Company A will be negotiating from a position of strength, and longer-term, it will leave itself well-positioned for the turn-around.  With a market cap of $124B and an annual cash flow of $12B,  IBM is Company A: more than able cover the estimated $6.5-$8B deal for Company B (Sun) in cash.

Antitrust?
Software: It should be relatively smooth sailing: the very fact that Java is open source should help insulate IBM from any challenges by Microsoft or IBM’s middleware competitors (it should be noted, though, that not all is not bliss in the open source community: the non-profit Apache Foundation is currently in a longstanding dispute with Sun over licensing of Apache’s “Harmony” Java implementation).
Hardware: This could be an issue.  IBM and Sun are already the two leading tape storage players, and the Unix server market is currently split roughly equally between Sun, IBM, and HP.  It’s therefore pretty easy to imagine HP making a compelling antitrust argument against a combined IBM/Sun holding two thirds of the Unix server market - or any number of smaller companies arguing against a combined IBM/Sun dominating the tape storage market.


In short…
In one form or another, I think this deal will go through - it just makes too much sense.  I do expect a bumpy antitrust ride, though - whether IBM gets all of Sun for the $6.5-$8B or whether the hardware businesses are spun off and IBM picks up only Java and MySql for less remains to be seen…

Who knew? Barack Obama, of all things, now as Microsoft Office Clip Art!

With almost half a billion copies of the software giant’s Office application suite installed around the globe, anyone featured here is likely seen more often than Kim Kardashian on Dancing With the Stars ever will.

Clearly, Microsoft’s clip art has the reach most media outlets crave - a real asset, especially in today’s increasingly disintermediated world.

Which brings up the question, who at Microsoft decides over who’s in (the library) and who stays out?

In lieu of an answer, I was curious enough to check what other contemporary or past celebrity made the cut according to Microsoft’s Clip Art staff.

Turns out, neither George W. Bush nor Bill Clinton are included.

Neither is Adolf Hitler. (Thought I’d check, just to be sure).

But Mahatma Gandhi is.

And so is Abraham Lincoln.

Which brings us right back to Barack Obama, who has recently received much (self-induced) comparison to the iconic 16th US President.

Is someone in Redmond having fun channeling the travails of current-day politics via cliché PC clip art?

As you might have noticed, laptop computers are getting more popular.  Users, meanwhile, are demanding more processing power and longer battery life from these machines, while at the same time expecting them to be as compact as possible and run as quietly (i.e. with as little cooling fan noise) as possible: in short, a perfect recipe for heat issues.

Research continues on cooler-running CPUs and longer-life batteries, but these challenges really have more to do with electrical and chemical engineering than with computer science.   Meanwhile, given the intensely competitive low-margin market computer makers find themselves in, companies are are finding themselves bumping up against the laws of physics - and often pushing the envelope (hence the infamous pickup-truck-destroying laptop battery incident).

While a burnt-out truck makes for a good story, the more likely adverse effects of heat fatigue are less dramatic - but still worth avoiding.  Usually, over time excessive heat leads to early hardware failure.  Often this can be an easily replaceable power supply, but just as often, repeated temperature extremes can cause early system circuit board failure (in which case the laptop is usually totaled) or early hard drive failure (and let’s face it, local laptop data tends to get backed up less than desktop data).   And to an unusual extent, it’s up to the consumer to protect themselves - because why wouldn’t a manufacturer (who might be just looking to make the next quarter’s numbers) be tempted to sell you a machine with great specs even if that means it runs hot and is likely to break a year or two sooner than it should?   To the extent that just puts you back in the market for a new laptop that much sooner, it’s kind of a win-win, no?

Conspiracy theories aside, this is all by way of saying that heat is a big issue - and it’s up to the user to be aware of it.  I’m a part-time musician, and for a while, I was doing shows with various groups in New York and Boston using a laptop in a live performance situation.  After that first heat-related shutdown in the middle of a show, I resolved to never suffer that embarrassing nightmare again - so I went online and found an entire cottage industry in primitive-looking but effective laptop cooling racks.  The  concept was simple: elevate the machine for more air flow, and slap on one or more USB-powered fans to help move more of that air through the machine.  I bought one of the first-generation unit shown below, and since then have never had another thermal shutdown (curious house cat purchased separately).

As a firm believer in the long-term benefits of keeping machines (and especially laptops) cool, I was interested to see that Microsoft has just come out with an updated (and much better-looking) cooling rack of their own (at left).  While this device might be met with a few ho-hums from a technology press more accustomed to covering the next world-changing smart phone, kudos to Microsoft - because with the current generation of small, powerful, barely adequately cooled laptops out there (laptops that we all happen to be depending upon more and more, by the way), the time is right for this device.

And hey, it also solves an ergonomic issue by putting the keyboard an a better angle - so it’s good for you and your leeetle friend….

CeBIT, held each year in Hannover (Germany), is the biggest technology show in the world.  What makes it larger than CES is that rather than limit itself to consumer electronics, it includes both home and office technology - in other words, all things digital.  I’m not at the show, but having read a few of the articles starting to show up online (the show’s currently running until March 8th), one company stands out as having at least a few good ideas:  Asus.

I’ve already written about how the time is right for netbooks - Asus has a 60% share of the European market and a 30% share of the worldwide market - so they’ve been doing something right.  In addition, the company has some serious plans for bring the Google Android operation system to the netbook.  It’s worth noting that while Android has had the iPhone headwind to fight in the smartphone market, no such incumbant hands-down winner exists in the netbook operating system market.  In fact, with netbooks gaining traction, Android evolving, and a lightweight netbook version of Windows 7 on the horizon, the netbook OS market could prove to be a major front in the epic battle between you-know-who and you-know-who.

But I digress.  Let’s talk some gizmo. At left is an Asus “concept netbook.”   It starts with the tablet computer concept from a few years back and takes it a step or two further - a completely touch screen-based interface, and a second monitor.  Although not yet commercially available, a few thoughts do come to mind:

• The clamshell design nicely solves the problem of maximizing screen real estate while at the same time protecting the portable device’s touch screens.
• To the extent a touch screen Netbook interface becomes popular, XP Home becomes obsolete as a netbook OS, forcing Microsoft’s hand in getting a Windows 7 Netbook OS out there quickly.
• Is this the perfect Kindle platform, or what??



Speaking of touchscreens - here’s an interesting device, looking very much like the result of crossing a computer keyboard with an iPhone.  While adding a touchscreen to a keyboard is a cool enough idea in and of itself (and as the most cost-effective way to enjoy the next generation of touch-enabled operating systems, probably something we’ll see a lot of), there’s more here than meets the eye: this is actually a netbook running XP Home! With an 802.11g wireless interface and a wireless HDMI interface (that’s a new one on me), you’ve yourself got a cable-free internet streaming solution, as well as a computer for the coffee table and the couch.  It’s my feeling users would be more interested in the former than the latter, but either way, a pretty cool device - and another idea that’s hard to imagining not becoming popular.

As an IT consultant/network administrator a few years ago, one of my clients was a small but fast-growing retailer with several remote locations spread across the country.  Having no trusted technicians available in some of these cities, it was a clear win when I chose to go with WYSE thin client terminals on many of these remote seats (I wrote a bit about that here).   While the idea of such simple and lightweight “web appliances” dates back to the late 90’s, despite a few short stints as The Next Big Thing, the devices never proved quite as popular as promised - but conditions now are more favorable than ever:

• Increasing functionality in the cloud mitigates much of the need for heavy client-side application installations (and the RAM/processor power/data storage they require)
• The current global economic climate certainly favors less expensive (and often computationally redundant) devices

There’s a third (and crucial) factor, though: now that wireless internet access has become nearly ubiquitous, we all place an increasing premium on portability (consider that by most accounts, laptop sales actually surpassed desktop sales for the first time during 2008).  What do you get, then, when you take all the innate advantages of thin computing and add today’s need for mobile computing?

The “netbook” - a small (8″ or 10″ screen) laptop with a lightweight operating system, long battery life, (and often) solid state disk (SSD) storage.  As with good bread, the Beatles, and text messaging, it’s Europe that’s been out in front on this, but that’s expected to change as US acceptance of the netbook grows.  In fact, while industry analysts at Gartner expect overall 2009 PC sales to decline by almost 12% (a historic high), they see netbook sales doubling.

To date, the low-power Intel Atom has been the netbook CPU of choice, but AMD and Motorola have each recently released new processors of their own aimed at this growing market.   As for what operating system runs on those chips, for now it’s come down to a battle between Microsoft and the Linux community (Apple having not yet demonstrated much interest in this lower-end market).  Google’s Android cell phone operating system has even been ported over to a netbook - an interesting possible future platform for the open source OS.

Many of the first netbooks ran a specialized Linux kernel, a trend that only looked to gain more momentum once Microsoft stopped stopped selling XP last June.  However, with the netbook trend starting to pick up, Vista proving too resource-hungry for many desktops (let alone netbooks), and with Windows 7 still months away, Microsoft had a change of heart - and recently decided to bring back XP Home, giving the OS a second life as their unofficial interim netbook operating system (until Windows 7 arrives, that is).  It’s an easy decision to justify: while netbooks are by definition leaner and meaner than traditional PCs, users still expect them to be more than mere terminals: in other words, people like their applications (and chances are pretty good the ones they’re used to are not going to be available for Linux).   Furthermore, despite (or maybe because of) the fate Vista met in the marketplace, many users still like XP - and in any event, to a less technical user, that oh-so familiar Microsoft desktop would have to look more reassuring (and less toy-like) than a Linux desktop - even if only on a purely emotional level.  Lastly, even if Vista was able to run on a netbook, licensing costs for the new OS would tend to put the machine well beyond the price point of the average netbook.

So, not surprisingly, the decision paid off for Microsoft: XP Home lives on and has beaten Linux out to ship on the majority of netbooks now sold (in a telling sign, HP recently stopped even offering Linux netbooks in otherwise penguin-friendly Europe).

Either way, in addition to all the other advantages, at only $200 to $400 each, these devices (much like smart phones) are inexpensive enough to be subsidized by long-term internet service agreements - so going forward it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which netbooks do not figure in heavily.   Microsoft, for one, agrees, and is committed  to releasing a lightweight version of Windows 7 optimized for netbooks (despite the economics of the netbook market dictating substantially lower license fees than Redmond is used to charging).

I think there might be one in your future too.

I know I want one - so it’s got to be cool, right?